Russia temporarily banned the export of gasoline and diesel to all but four ex-Soviet states due to domestic shortages, which will disrupt global trade already impacted by Western sanctions. While Russia has eased some restrictions, importers will need to find alternative sellers until Russia can replenish its own stocks. The fuel market in Russia was affected by a combination of factors including maintenance at oil refineries, bottlenecks on railways, and the weak rouble. The ban on diesel will have the biggest impact as Russia is the world’s top seaborne exporter of the fuel. The ban’s duration is uncertain, with estimates ranging from two weeks to two months. Brazil and Turkey will be significantly affected, while African states are expected to turn to supplies from the Middle East, India, and Turkey. Europe may also fill some of the gap left by the gasoline ban, and competition for alternative suppliers will increase, impacting trade flows. Northeast Asian refiners, such as those in China and South Korea, are expected to boost diesel exports to Europe.
