“The resulting backlash would not just be against specific policies but against the wider mission itself, meaning we might never achieve our goal.”
Mr Sunak said he was choosing a “pragmatic” approach, eschewing ideologues at both ends of the spectrum who either wanted to abandon net zero ambitions or race towards it too quickly.
He also said Britain was reducing emissions faster than the US, China or France, giving the country space to take a more flexible approach.
Conservatives divided
The fracturing of political consensus on climate issues in Britain, and potentially in parts of Europe, comes just as Australia’s political class appears to have at least partly put to rest its own “climate wars”.
In Britain, the move was condemned by Labour but has also divided the governing Conservatives. Home Secretary Suella Braverman backed up Mr Sunak, telling Times Radio that “we’re not going to save the planet by bankrupting the British people”.
But other Conservative MPs fretted that the move would cost more votes than it would win, while ex-PM Boris Johnson decried the uncertainty it would heap on business.
David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics, sad: “The news that UK Prime Minster Sunak is set to further dilute the government’s climate policies demonstrates that when the political going gets tough, climate policies are the first to fall by the wayside.
“From a macro perspective, the biggest risk is that heightened uncertainty about the direction of policy delays [will] deter investment in green technology in a range of sectors including autos and property.”
Europe eyes changes
Most of Britain’s car makers came out publicly on Wednesday to say they were still trying to work to a 2030 timetable, and to lament the lack of support and clarity for their sector.
One of Britain’s biggest energy companies, E.ON UK, said “green versus cheap” was a false dichotomy. Delaying the phase-out of gas boilers for home heating was “a misstep on many levels”, E.ON boss Chris Norbury said.
Former Conservative minister and climate adviser John Gummer, known as Lord Deben, told the BBC that Mr Sunak’s move could be subject to judicial review, because the policies were essential to meeting the legally binding 2050 target.
Mr Sunak has been contemplating a rethink on Britain’s climate policies since a byelection in July in Mr Johnson’s former seat, where his Conservative Party clung on after campaigning against a new London levy on old petrol and diesel cars, introduced by the Labour mayor.
After the byelection, politicians and pundits suggested that although public support for the net zero target is high, it quickly withers when the target translates into higher costs for individual consumers.
Questions are now being asked about whether the cost-of-living crisis of the past 18 months has reshaped the political balance in Europe as well.
“The cost-of-living and inflation crisis is still hitting Europe hard, which makes any kind of political change difficult,” said Manon Dufour, head of the Brussels office at environmental think tank E3G.
“The green agenda is bumping up against the cost-of-living crisis, so politicians are starting to get nervous.”
There has already been a political furore in Germany about moves to rapidly eradicate fossil fuels in domestic heating, and a recent conservation law caused a split in the European Parliament’s centre-right camp.
“What has been done so far is the low-hanging fruit. Now it’s the harder stuff. Politicians are getting really scared about how to manage this,” said Susi Dennison, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“The overall strategic commitment is quite high. What we are seeing more are arguments over the nitty-gritty: who bears the cost, which order we do things in.
“The answer we’re hearing from all political groups at the moment is that there has to be a just transition, one which shares the costs across all sectors. But the money on the table just isn’t enough to do that. This will make it hard to convince voters.”
