On September 1, 2020, a view of a gas plant seen from the desert road of Suez outside Cairo, Egypt was captured. The picture was taken on the same date and Reuters’ Amr Abdallah Dalsh owns the copyrights to it.
According to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES), the prospect of the EU receiving more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Egypt in the short and medium term is unlikely due to tight gas balances and reduced imports from Israel. Egypt shipped 80% of its LNG exports to Europe last year, but the conflict between Israel and Hamas has led to Chevron shutting down the Israeli Tamar gas field, resulting in the suspension of exports through the subsea EMG pipeline to Egypt. This has put pressure on Egypt’s gas balances, which were already under strain due to declining gas production and growing domestic demand.
Despite resuming LNG exports in October and November, the conflict is expected to keep Egypt’s LNG exports under pressure, making the EU’s prospects of receiving more LNG from Egypt unattainable in the short and medium term. Egypt’s LNG exports are also set to remain low to zero over winter, according to experts.
The June 2022 Memorandum of Understanding between Egypt, Israel, and the EU, committing to higher supply, is now probably undeliverable, as per OIES. Cairo imports about 7 billion cubic feet per year of natural gas from the Tamar and Leviathan developments in Israel, which helps meet domestic demand and power liquefaction plants.
Egypt’s petroleum ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
