What’s more, this would leave the UK in a worse position than before it left the bloc because we would have no formal say in the formulation of the EU’s rules and regulations.
The Single Market’s benefits have been widely overestimated. It is noteworthy that countries all around the world manage to sell successfully into the Single Market without being members of it. And belonging to it means imposing the EU’s rules and regulations on the whole of the British economy, almost 90pc of which does not consist of exports to the EU.
It is true, however, that we haven’t exactly made much use of our new-found regulatory freedoms since we left the EU. There has been hardly any effective deregulation. Nevertheless, we may make more use of our freedoms in years to come.
I always thought that the major dangers of EU membership lay mainly in the future, that is to say, what the EU might choose to do when confronted by the many challenges that lie ahead. I think this applies especially to artificial intelligence (AI).
If the optimists are right – and I include myself in their number – then AI is going to cause a wave of creative destruction across the economy. In order to be able to gain from the benefits that AI will bring, we will have to allow many jobs and many firms, to disappear as new ones are created.
From its history, I wonder whether the EU is going to be able to accept this. The danger is that it will over-regulate and over-restrict the use of AI, and miss out accordingly.
When it comes to Free Trade Agreements, we have secured more deals than the pessimists envisaged, and we have secured membership of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Yet the effect is hardly going to be transformative and the really big deal that could make a difference, namely one with the US, remains elusive.
Yet Europe is shrinking in relative importance in the world economy. Some of the reasons for this are demographic, but there is also a fundamental lack of economic dynamism. Although Brexit has so far brought very few economic advantages, it has made possible our alignment with the parts of the world that are growing faster.
